Another ho hum 3-3 but the good news is we hit on more big bets than we lost so the weekend was at least profitable. Had San Jose State been able to tackle the third string running back with 30 seconds to play the plays would have been a stellar 4-2 for a tidy 3 unit profit. Instead, Chris Peterson, we’ll call him the anti-Christ, decided to run the ball from the 50 instead of going to victory formation for the classy 31 point win. Throw in some conference home cooking on instant replay reviews and officiating in general, and Boise backers cash on one of the worst beats of the season.

Which leads me to a quick thought on capping for or against conference darlings. In these economic times, you’d have to be pretty naive to think conferences don’t have rooting interests especially smaller conferences. The Boise game was the classic example. It’s even rearing its ugly head in the Big 10 and SEC. Iowa had no business winning this weekend and we all know about the Shenanigans surrounding Florida and Alabama games. Word to the wise. Be careful. Add a field goal when capping this angle.

On to this week’s slate which will be a relatively light one. If you’re an action hound, and need more plays, I invite you to hook up to Huck’s supercomputer, which has been undefeated over the last week and change for a redonkulous 15 unit profit. Sick stuff you should be tailing.

As for my games, let’s roll…

UH pick @ Tulsa. 3 units.
People will tell you this is a fishy number and all the sharp action has come in on Tulsa. Rubbish. There was one sharp move early in the week that pushed the number across the zero making the Cougs a 2.5 point dog at one point. The line move has moved back, however, indicating sharp play on the other side. Without a sharp consensus, feel free to jump in and take advantage of an obvious mismatch.

UH has moved the ball up and down the field vs. every opponent it has faced and this week will be no exception. If there’s one given in this contest, it’s that the Cougars are going to score. Where the matchup really favors Houston is on the other side of the ball. UH has a fighting chance to stop the Hurricane rushing attack because Tulsa has struggled to run the ball against the likes of SMU, UTEP, and Rice. Which means TU will have to put the ball in GJ Kinne’s hands and ask him to play tit for tat with Case Keenum. Not good. If Tulsa had a decent running attack I might back off a bit, but the line and the matchup dictate a huge Cougar play in this one. I honestly feel like I’m stealing here, so it gets the rare 3 unit grade. Houston with a comfortable win 45 to 35.

UCF +37 @ Texas. 1 unit.

Betting on Texas has been very profitable for me this year but rest assured that the books are going to be looking to get some back from public teams like the Horns this week. From an angle and spot standpoint, this is a capper’s wet dream. Texas has run the prelude to a championship gauntlet with a tough win vs. OU and blow out showstoppers @ Mizzou and OSU. Time to exhale. It’s going to be tough for the Horns to get up for a Florida directional school after hearing about how great Texas is all week. An 11 am start won’t help either. But what about the UTEP game? You ask. Well UTEP ran into a UT buzzsaw hellbent on making up for a poor performance @Wyoming. Texas’ coaching staff doesn’t have the luxury of using a poor performance as motivation this week in practice. Texas will come in fat and flat this Saturday.

As for X’s and O’s, Scipio has given us a solid scouting report in this preview. UCF has enough athletes to keep the Longhorns from going nuts on offense, while UCF’s offense is built to shorten the game and run clock. There won’t be a lot of opportunities for pick 6’s and fumbles on sacks to help you cover this monster number. If UCF can keep the game within 4 touchdowns over the first two and half quarters, the Garret Gilbert handoff show guarantees you a cover. Look for a solid Texas win after a sluggish start. 38 to 10 Texas.

LA Tech +22 vs. Boise. 1 unit
Tougher to officiate your way to a blow out on the other team’s home turf. The primetime weeknight matchup will give Tech the juice to make the game competitive. Boise QB Kellen Moore is still banged up from the SJSU game. The Broncos will be conservative and try to protect him. Boise escapes with a win and we get the cash. 31 to 21 Boise.

SMU -17.5 vs. Rice. 1 unit.
Statistically, Rice is one of the worst teams in NCAA history. SMU is starting to find its mojo. Dont’ let two and half TD’s worth of chalk scare you off of this win. The Ponies will have it covered at halftime. 42 to 14 SMU.

Duke +10 @ UNC. 1 unit
Duke can do enough on offense to put points on the board against a salty UNC group. UNC’s offense has been anemic week to week and they’ll need to get to 30 to cover double digits. From an angle standpoint, this is a poor spot for the Heels after a big win at Va Tech and a little brother rival coming in. UNC wins a nail biter, 24 to 20.

Good luck on your plays. And don’t forget to sign up on FLV’s Book.